SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 2 outcomes2 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 5 min agoCloses Jun 6, 2026 · 28d

Kontinental Hockey League

Leader sits at 53% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 50%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

53%

Winner: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl

runner-up 50¢leader 53¢

Outcomes

2

winner-take-all

Runner-up

50¢

Winner: Ak Bars Kazan

Spread

3pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

Jun 6, 2026

28 days

Venue

Polymarket

2 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayWinner: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: 53% (11 days, 8 points)Winner: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: 53% on 2026-05-08Winner: Ak Bars Kazan: 50% (11 days, 10 points)Winner: Ak Bars Kazan: 50% on 2026-05-08
Winner: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl53¢Winner: Ak Bars Kazan50¢
Top 2 candidates by current price · 11d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This 45% probability reflects market expectations that Avangard Omsk will win the Kontinental Hockey League championship. The price suggests roughly 3-to-2 odds favoring them over the field, with Lokomotiv Yaroslavl as the second-choice contender at 22%. Avangard's elevated probability likely reflects their regular-season performance, roster depth, or playoff positioning heading into the spring tournament phase. The championship outcome will be determined by playoff results as teams compete through the KHL's elimination rounds, with the winner decided by season-end (typically June). Market pricing could shift based on playoff match-ups, injury updates, or performance swings during the tournament. Low trading volume on most contracts suggests limited recent activity, so significant new information could trigger repricing across the outcome set.

  • Avangard Omsk's regular-season standings and playoff seeding relative to other contenders
  • Head-to-head playoff match-up draws and bracket positioning in upcoming rounds
  • Key player availability and injury status for Avangard and competing teams
  • Historical playoff performance and win rates for Avangard versus Lokomotiv Yaroslavl and other top contenders
  • Trading volume concentration ($50 24h volume on the Avangard contract vs. $0 on alternatives) indicating limited market confidence or consensus

What moved the line

  • May 6Winner: Ak Bars Kazan19pp3251¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Winner: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl16pp3753¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6Winner: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl15pp2237¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 2 contracts (53% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.