Korea Republic vs. Czechia
Leader sits at 38% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Korea Republic
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
Czechia
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$113
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 12, 2026
34 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Korea Republic vs. Czechia
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Korea Republic will win a head-to-head matchup against Czechia, with Korea priced at 38% favorite according to aggregated prediction market data. The assessment likely reflects Korea's recent competitive performance and squad depth relative to Czechia, balanced against Czechia's established international experience. Several related contracts suggest Korea is considered competitive in their World Cup group, with strong odds to qualify from Group A. The primary driver of probability movement would be team composition changes, injury news, or updated performance data in the months leading to their match. Resolution depends on the scheduled Korea vs. Czechia fixture, which appears connected to the 2026 World Cup tournament format. Historical head-to-head records and recent qualification performances would be secondary factors shaping current market positioning.
- ›Korea Republic is priced 4 percentage points above the runner-up outcome (34%), indicating plurality but not strong consensus among prediction market participants
- ›Korea qualify odds at 71¢ on a separate Kalshi contract suggest the market views Korea's overall group position as relatively strong, which may support the bilateral matchup probability
- ›Recent contract volumes on Mexico vs Korea (97 volume) and South Africa vs Korea (59 volume) suggest active pricing on Korea's group stage matches, providing liquidity context for related bilateral bets
- ›Czechia's representation in these contracts is limited, making direct comparative performance metrics difficult to extract from available market data
- ›The 38% probability implies roughly 62% combined probability for Czechia and other outcomes combined, indicating a moderately competitive but not dominant positioning for Korea
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.