Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
29%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
20 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC” vs “Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: Avispa Fukuoka
0x805f95…893c
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xd4cc9a…8cd8
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd9e96a…3268
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x35fac1…c35e
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xf1423f…1619
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Avispa Fukuoka (-2.5)
0xf35f62…6fe2
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Avispa Fukuoka (-1.5)
0x33b100…116d
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5)
0xce2952…4178
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x8ab58d…9774
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5)
0xad3d5f…1797
Cluster 2
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x164f65…9ef8
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x6cfc8d…7b8f
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Nagoya Grampus
0x25132a…c79e
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xe57d5e…f288
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)
0x0524ea…9f8d
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xec59e7…8852
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc12420…a052
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: Gamba Ōsaka (-2.5)
0xa41811…3aa9
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: Nagoya Grampus (-2.5)
0x0a8118…d88b
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)
0x97c68a…0456
Analysis
This 29% probability reflects aggregate trader expectations that Kyōto Sanga FC will achieve a specific outcome against Gamba Ōsaka in an upcoming match. The probability sits near the lower end, suggesting traders view the outcome as more likely to go the other way. Current standings, recent form, head-to-head records, and injury reports for both squads are primary drivers of where this estimate lands. The resolution of uncertainty depends on the actual match result, which will be determined when these teams play. Recent performance trends and any lineup changes announced before kickoff would likely shift the probability either direction.
- ›Recent league positions and points totals for both Kyōto Sanga and Gamba Ōsaka as of late 2026
- ›Head-to-head historical record and results from the most recent meetings between these teams
- ›Current injury status or suspensions affecting key players on either squad
- ›Kyōto Sanga's win-loss-draw record over their last 5-10 J-League matches
- ›Home-field advantage status and venue-specific performance patterns if applicable
What moved the line
- May 6Avispa Fukuoka (-1.5)↓32pp38→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Avispa Fukuoka (-2.5)↓27pp32→5¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5)↓27pp37→10¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 4.5↓27pp34→7¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 1.5↑25pp61→86¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.