La Liga - Top Goalscorer
Leader sits at 91% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Top Goalscorer : Kylian Mbappe
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Top Goalscorer : Vedat Muriq
Spread
83pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$415
thin orderbook
Closes
May 30, 2026
21 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
laliga: top goalscorer
LALIGA: Top Goalscorer : Kylian Mbappe
0xa449cd…56c7
LALIGA: Top Goalscorer : Vedat Muriqi
0xe819c3…d0a8
Analysis
The market assigns an 89% probability that Kylian Mbappe finishes as La Liga's top goalscorer for the 2025-26 season. This reflects Mbappe's status as the league's primary forward for Real Madrid, his recent track record, and the relatively limited goalscoring competition among other La Liga strikers. The probability would decline if Mbappe suffers injury, experiences an extended performance slump, or faces unexpectedly stiff competition from other forwards. The outcome will be determined at the end of the 2025-26 La Liga season in May or June 2026, with monthly performance data and injury updates providing interim signals throughout the campaign. Current volumes remain modest, suggesting limited market testing of alternative outcomes.
- ›Mbappe's minutes played and rotation status at Real Madrid—injuries or reduced playing time would materially lower his scoring pace
- ›Comparative goal-scoring form of other top La Liga forwards (Lewandowski, Simeone-era Atletico strikers, Barcelona's front line) relative to Mbappe's production rate
- ›La Liga's fixture congestion and international breaks in 2025-26, which affect player availability and fatigue across the season
- ›Mbappe's historical conversion efficiency and expected goals creation relative to his competitors, not merely shot volume
- ›Real Madrid's tactical priorities and depth at forward—whether Mbappe maintains primary responsibility for attacking play
What moved the line
- May 2Top Goalscorer : Kylian Mbappe↑6pp84→90¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Top Goalscorer : Vedat Muriqi↓4pp14→10¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Top Goalscorer : Vedat Muriqi↓4pp12→8¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (91% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.