SimpleFunctions
9 contractsKalshirefreshed 4 min agoCloses Sep 7, 2026 · 121d

Will El Divo win La Casa de los Famosos

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 9 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

6%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

6%

9 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$13

9 contracts

Closes

Sep 7, 2026

121 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 6% (4 days, 4 points)Aggregate: 6% on 2026-05-06
Aggregate of 9 contracts · 4d

Bracket families

9 clusters across 9 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will El Divo win La Casa de los Famosos: Season 6

1 contract$7

Cluster 2

Will Celinee win La Casa de los Famosos: Season 6

1 contract$6

Cluster 3

Will Horacio win La Casa de los Famosos: Season 6

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will Fabio win La Casa de los Famosos: Season 6

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Yoridan win La Casa de los Famosos: Season 6

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Stefano win La Casa de los Famosos: Season 6

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Luis win La Casa de los Famosos: Season 6

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Curvy win La Casa de los Famosos: Season 6

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will Kenny win La Casa de los Famosos: Season 6

1 contract$0

Analysis

La Casa de los Famosos is a Spanish-language reality competition show, and El Divo refers to a contestant or predicted winner in an upcoming season. The 6% probability reflects relatively low odds compared to other potential contestants. This level suggests markets view El Divo as an underdog pick, with more established or popular reality TV personalities considered stronger contenders. The probability would shift based on contestant elimination patterns as the season progresses, viewer engagement metrics, social media momentum, and any public voting or competition results. The primary resolution event is the show's finale broadcast, where winner determination occurs. Until then, early eliminations or unexpected contestant popularity surges could substantially move odds. Markets pricing El Divo at 6% indicate either limited public backing or that prediction markets currently favor alternative contestants with larger fanbases or perceived advantages in the competition format.

  • Contestant elimination schedule and timing relative to voting rounds or public elimination events
  • Social media engagement metrics and audience sentiment tracking for El Divo compared to competing contestants
  • Format-specific advantages such as competition challenges suited to El Divo's demonstrated skills or personality traits
  • Prior seasons' historical data on which contestant archetypes or demographics achieve higher placement rates
  • Scheduled date of the season finale and current phase of elimination within the competition timeline

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.