LaLiga: 2nd Place Finish
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
5%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
LaLiga: 2nd Place Finish: Villarreal
LaLiga: 2nd Place Finish: Villarreal
0x9a5ccd…3592
Analysis
This 34% probability reflects the chances that a team finishes in second place in LaLiga during the 2026 season. The aggregated estimate sits slightly below typical mid-range forecasts, suggesting modest confidence in this outcome. The position depends heavily on three dynamics: the strength of the top-finishing team (which would compress second-place competition), the performance variance of clubs contending for the runner-up spot, and any mid-season roster changes affecting competitive balance. The 3 percentage-point gap between venues likely reflects differing assessments of these variables rather than data disagreement. Resolution occurs at the end of the 2026 LaLiga season when final standings are determined. Seasonal outcomes depend on injury patterns, transfer activity, managerial stability, and competitive shifts within Spain's top division over the coming months.
- ›The identity and consistency of the top-finishing team will determine how compressed the race for second place becomes
- ›Mid-season transfers or managerial changes at contending clubs could materially alter competitive trajectories
- ›Injury patterns to key players on potential second-place contenders will influence point accumulation across the season
- ›The gap between Kalshi and Polymarket probabilities (3pp) suggests some analytical disagreement on second-place team competitiveness
- ›Final resolution occurs when LaLiga publishes official 2026 season standings, with no provisional or appeal period affecting the outcome
What moved the line
- May 22nd Place Finish: Villarreal↑19pp0→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 32nd Place Finish: Villarreal↓13pp19→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 62nd Place Finish: Villarreal↓3pp6→3¢ · Polymarket
- May 72nd Place Finish: Villarreal↓3pp3→0¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (5% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 d ago.