LALIGA - Top 4 Finish
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
4%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
May 30, 2026
21 days
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
LALIGA - Top 4 Finish : Betis
LALIGA - Top 4 Finish : Betis
0xccb49e…a630
Analysis
This 4% probability reflects market expectations that a specific team will finish in La Liga's top four positions by the end of the 2025-26 season. The low probability suggests that either the team in question has significant structural disadvantages compared to typical top-four contenders, or it lacks the recent form and points needed to realistically compete for European qualification spots. The main factors influencing this assessment are the team's current league position and point differential relative to the top four, their remaining fixture difficulty, recent win-loss trends, and historical performance patterns. Resolution will occur when La Liga concludes in May 2026, with the final league table determining whether the team finishes fourth or lower. Market reassessment typically accelerates after key head-to-head matches between competing teams and during transfer windows when roster changes might alter competitive positioning.
- ›Current points tally and goal differential compared to the fourth-place team as of early May 2026
- ›Remaining fixtures difficulty rating, including direct matchups against other top-four contenders
- ›Recent 10-match form and consistency, particularly in away performances against upper-table sides
- ›Key injury status among starting players during the critical final weeks of the season
- ›Transfer activity during the January window that could materially affect squad depth and performance
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.