Girona vs Real Betis
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
28%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$732
20 contracts
Closes
May 26, 2026
18 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
13 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Will Tie win the 1st Half” vs “Barcelona vs Real Madrid: First Half Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Tie win the 1st Half
Will Tie win the 1st Half?: Tie
KXLALIGA1H-26MAY14RMAOVI-TIE
Will Tie win the 1st Half?: Tie
KXLALIGA1H-26MAY13ALABAR-TIE
Will Tie win the 1st Half?: Tie
KXLALIGA1H-26MAY13GETMAL-TIE
Will Tie win the 1st Half?: Tie
KXLALIGA1H-26MAY14VCFRVC-TIE
Will Tie win the 1st Half?: Tie
KXLALIGA1H-26MAY14GIRRSO-TIE
Cluster 2
Barcelona vs Real Madrid: First Half Winner
Barcelona vs Real Madrid: First Half Winner?: Barcelona
KXLALIGA1H-26MAY10BARRMA-BAR
Barcelona vs Real Madrid: First Half Winner?: Real Madrid
KXLALIGA1H-26MAY10BARRMA-RMA
Barcelona vs Real Madrid: First Half Winner?: Tie
KXLALIGA1H-26MAY10BARRMA-TIE
Cluster 3
Atletico vs Celta Vigo: First Half Winner
Cluster 4
Will Valencia win the 1st Half
Will Valencia win the 1st Half?: Valencia
KXLALIGA1H-26MAY14VCFRVC-VCF
Cluster 5
Will Real Madrid win the 1st Half
Will Real Madrid win the 1st Half?: Real Madrid
KXLALIGA1H-26MAY14RMAOVI-RMA
Cluster 6
Will Oviedo win the 1st Half
Will Oviedo win the 1st Half?: Oviedo
KXLALIGA1H-26MAY14RMAOVI-OVI
Cluster 7
Will Girona win the 1st Half
Will Girona win the 1st Half?: Girona
KXLALIGA1H-26MAY14GIRRSO-GIR
Cluster 8
Will Real Sociedad win the 1st Half
Will Real Sociedad win the 1st Half?: Real Sociedad
KXLALIGA1H-26MAY14GIRRSO-RSO
Cluster 9
Will Vallecano win the 1st Half
Will Vallecano win the 1st Half?: Vallecano
KXLALIGA1H-26MAY14VCFRVC-RVC
Cluster 10
Will Getafe win the 1st Half
Will Getafe win the 1st Half?: Getafe
KXLALIGA1H-26MAY13GETMAL-GET
Cluster 11
Will Mallorca win the 1st Half
Will Mallorca win the 1st Half?: Mallorca
KXLALIGA1H-26MAY13GETMAL-MAL
Cluster 12
Will Alaves win the 1st Half
Will Alaves win the 1st Half?: Alaves
KXLALIGA1H-26MAY13ALABAR-ALA
Cluster 13
Will Barcelona win the 1st Half
Will Barcelona win the 1st Half?: Barcelona
KXLALIGA1H-26MAY13ALABAR-BAR
What moved the line
- May 6First Half Winner?: Barcelona↑18pp21→39¢ · Kalshi
- May 6First Half Winner?: Tie↑14pp16→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 6First Half Winner?: Real Madrid↑9pp11→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 3First Half Winner?: Tie↑9pp28→37¢ · Kalshi
- May 3First Half Winner?: Atletico↑8pp26→34¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.