Based on 17 prediction markets, the current aggregate probability is 54%. Data sourced from Kalshi and Polymarket.

Aggregate probability is 54% across 17 contracts on Kalshi. Updated 3 min ago.

17 contractsKalshirefreshed 3 min agoCloses May 26, 2026 · 18d

Valencia at Mallorca

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 54% across 17 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

54%

0%50%100%

Kalshi

54%

17 contracts

Polymarket

—

not bound

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$1K

17 contracts

Closes

May 26, 2026

18 days

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

Aggregate of 17 contracts · 5d

Bracket families

11 clusters across 17 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will both teams score

7 contracts$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will both teams score?: Both Teams To Score

KXLALIGABTTS-26MAY14RMAOVI-BTTS

48¢—$0K→

Will both teams score?: Both Teams To Score

KXLALIGABTTS-26MAY13ESPATH-BTTS

49¢—$0K→

Will both teams score?: Both Teams To Score

KXLALIGABTTS-26MAY13VILSEV-BTTS

53¢—$0K→

Will both teams score?: Both Teams To Score

KXLALIGABTTS-26MAY13ALABAR-BTTS

64¢—$0K→

Will both teams score?: Both Teams To Score

KXLALIGABTTS-26MAY13GETMAL-BTTS

40¢—$0K→

Will both teams score?: Both Teams To Score

KXLALIGABTTS-26MAY14VCFRVC-BTTS

52¢—$0K→

Will both teams score?: Both Teams To Score

KXLALIGABTTS-26MAY14GIRRSO-BTTS

57¢—$0K→

Cluster 2

Real Madrid at Barcelona: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

1 contract$1K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Real Madrid at Barcelona: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

KXLALIGABTTS-26MAY10BARRMA

72¢−2pp$1KK→

Cluster 3

Real Betis at Real Sociedad: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

1 contract$17

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Real Betis at Real Sociedad: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

KXLALIGABTTS-26MAY09RSORBB

60¢+1pp$17K→

Cluster 4

Getafe at Oviedo: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

1 contract$2

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Getafe at Oviedo: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

KXLALIGABTTS-26MAY10OVIGET

44¢+5pp$2K→

Cluster 5

Atletico at Osasuna: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

1 contract$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Atletico at Osasuna: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

KXLALIGABTTS-26MAY12OSAATM

55¢—$0K→

Cluster 6

Elche at Real Betis: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

1 contract$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Elche at Real Betis: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

KXLALIGABTTS-26MAY12RBBELC

53¢—$0K→

Cluster 7

Levante at Celta Vigo: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

1 contract$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Levante at Celta Vigo: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

KXLALIGABTTS-26MAY12RCCLEV

51¢—$0K→

Cluster 8

Girona at Vallecano: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

1 contract$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Girona at Vallecano: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

KXLALIGABTTS-26MAY11RVCGIR

56¢—$0K→

Cluster 9

Valencia at Bilbao: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

1 contract$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Valencia at Bilbao: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

KXLALIGABTTS-26MAY10ATHVCF

50¢+1pp$0K→

Cluster 10

Villarreal at Mallorca: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

1 contract$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Villarreal at Mallorca: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

KXLALIGABTTS-26MAY10MALVIL

59¢+17pp$0K→

Cluster 11

Celta Vigo at Atletico: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

1 contract$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Celta Vigo at Atletico: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

KXLALIGABTTS-26MAY09ATMRCC

59¢—$0K→

What moved the line

May 7Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score↑46pp14→60¢ · Kalshi
May 7Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score↑17pp41→58¢ · Kalshi
May 7Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score↑13pp36→49¢ · Kalshi
May 6Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score↑5pp69→74¢ · Kalshi
May 7Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score↑5pp38→43¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.

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