Real Betis wins by over 1.5 goals
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$11K
15 contracts
Closes
May 28, 2026
20 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Real Madrid wins by over
Real Madrid wins by over 1.5 goals?: Real Madrid wins by over 1.5 goals
KXLALIGASPREAD-26MAY10BARRMA-RMA1
Real Madrid wins by over 2.5 goals?: Real Madrid wins by over 2.5 goals
KXLALIGASPREAD-26MAY10BARRMA-RMA2
Real Madrid wins by over 1.5 goals?: Real Madrid wins by over 1.5 goals
KXLALIGASPREAD-26MAY14RMAOVI-RMA1
Real Madrid wins by over 2.5 goals?: Real Madrid wins by over 2.5 goals
KXLALIGASPREAD-26MAY14RMAOVI-RMA2
Cluster 2
Atletico wins by over
Cluster 3
Barcelona wins by over
Cluster 4
Girona wins by over
Cluster 5
Real Betis wins by over 2.5 goals
Real Betis wins by over 2.5 goals?: Real Betis wins by over 2.5 goals
KXLALIGASPREAD-26MAY09RSORBB-RBB2
Cluster 6
Oviedo wins by over 1.5 goals
Oviedo wins by over 1.5 goals?: Oviedo wins by over 1.5 goals
KXLALIGASPREAD-26MAY10OVIGET-OVI1
Cluster 7
Celta Vigo wins by over 1.5 goals
Celta Vigo wins by over 1.5 goals?: Celta Vigo wins by over 1.5 goals
KXLALIGASPREAD-26MAY09ATMRCC-RCC1
Cluster 8
Getafe wins by over 2.5 goals
Getafe wins by over 2.5 goals?: Getafe wins by over 2.5 goals
KXLALIGASPREAD-26MAY10OVIGET-GET2
Cluster 9
Real Sociedad wins by over 1.5 goals
Real Sociedad wins by over 1.5 goals?: Real Sociedad wins by over 1.5 goals
KXLALIGASPREAD-26MAY14GIRRSO-RSO1
What moved the line
- May 8Real Madrid wins by over 1.5 goals↑11pp41→52¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Barcelona wins by over 1.5 goals↑8pp24→32¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Barcelona wins by over 2.5 goals↑7pp8→15¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Celta Vigo wins by over 1.5 goals↑6pp2→8¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Atletico wins by over 2.5 goals↑5pp2→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.