LCS 2026 Spring Winner
Leader sits at 26% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
LYON
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
Cloud9
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 14, 2026
36 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
LCS 2026 Spring Winner
LCS 2026 Spring Winner: Cloud9
0x226c71…c72d
LCS 2026 Spring Winner: Shopify Rebellion
0x756735…4b64
LCS 2026 Spring Winner: LYON
0xbb00c0…04ac
LCS 2026 Spring Winner: Sentinels
0xfd10d7…7741
LCS 2026 Spring Winner: Team Liquid
0x47605f…1aa1
LCS 2026 Spring Winner: FlyQuest
0xdc946f…5648
Analysis
Team Liquid is priced at 27% to win the 2026 LCS Spring season, making them the favorite but far from certain. This reflects market expectations about their roster strength, recent performance, and head-to-head matchups against competitors like Cloud9 (13%) and FlyQuest (18%). The probability could shift based on injury reports, roster changes, or early season results once the regular season begins. The LCS Spring Split concludes with playoffs, typically held in late spring, which will definitively determine the winner and resolve all contracts. Near-term catalyst: the start of regular season matches will provide actual game data to replace pre-season expectations.
- ›Team Liquid's current 27% leader price implies 73% probability assigned collectively to all other outcomes, indicating competitive parity in market expectations
- ›Cloud9 at 13% and FlyQuest at 18% are viable alternatives; no team commands majority-favorite status despite Liquid's lead
- ›24-hour trading volumes are low ($34-79 per contract), suggesting limited liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads that could exaggerate price movements
- ›Regular season play beginning soon will generate objective performance data to calibrate prices versus pre-season assessments and roster evaluations
- ›LCS Spring playoff structure and single-elimination format means late-season momentum and bracket positioning carry material weight in championship outcomes
What moved the line
- May 2FlyQuest↓10pp28→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Cloud9↑9pp13→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Team Liquid↑8pp28→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 6FlyQuest↓5pp18→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Sentinels↓4pp17→13¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.