LD Alajuelense vs. Puntarenas FC - More Markets: LD Alajuelense (-2.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 46% across 4 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
46%
4 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$748
4 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy” vs “Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
0x2ae2eb…68c8
Cluster 2
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd0a2f0…02d4
Cluster 3
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x4612ca…3182
Cluster 4
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x64562d…92f6
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that LD Alajuelense will defeat Puntarenas FC by more than 2.5 goals in an upcoming match. At 46%, this suggests near-parity in market expectations, with slight skepticism about a decisive Alajuelense victory. The probability is likely influenced by each team's current form, goal-scoring records, and head-to-head history. The match itself serves as the primary catalyst that will definitively resolve this market—once the final score is recorded, the outcome becomes certain. Teams in stronger league positions typically generate higher win probabilities, while injuries to key strikers or defensive vulnerabilities could shift expectations significantly in either direction before kickoff.
- ›LD Alajuelense's recent goals-for and goals-against statistics compared to Puntarenas FC's defensive record
- ›Historical head-to-head results between these teams, particularly margin of victory patterns
- ›Current league standings and recent form (wins/losses/draws in last 5-10 matches)
- ›Availability of key players on both sides, particularly leading goal scorers or injured defenders
- ›Home/away advantage status and venue characteristics that may favor high-scoring or low-scoring outcomes
What moved the line
- May 6Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)↓20pp26→6¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.