LEC 2026 Spring Winner
Leader sits at 52% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 33%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
G2 Esports
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
33¢
Karmine Corp
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$255
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 7, 2026
29 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
LEC 2026 Spring Winner
Analysis
This probability reflects the current market consensus that one specific team will win the LEC 2026 Spring Split, with the leading contract at 34%. The market is dominated by a clear favorite, while the runner-up sits at 12%, suggesting moderate concentration around one expected winner rather than evenly distributed odds. The probability is driven by team roster strength, recent performance trajectories, and preseason expectations. The primary catalyst that will shift these odds is the start of the season itself, where early match results will either confirm or challenge the favorites' positioning. Week-by-week performance through the spring regular season will continuously recalibrate the outcome probabilities, with playoffs and the final series serving as the ultimate resolution event.
- ›The leading contract at 34% represents a single team that markets perceive as most likely to win, not an evenly split field
- ›Trading volume concentration ($15K-$11K on some Seoul elections contracts vs. $1.9K-$4.4K on others) suggests information asymmetry or differing confidence levels across related political markets
- ›The gap between leader (34%) and runner-up (12%) indicates moderate certainty around one team's advantage, not consensus conviction
- ›LEC Spring matches begin immediately, providing weekly match results that will be the primary new information affecting contract prices
- ›Season-long performance data from week 1 through finals will determine the actual winner and resolve all four contracts simultaneously
What moved the line
- May 3Team Vitality↑20pp11→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 2G2 Esports↓16pp47→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 6G2 Esports↑15pp30→45¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Team Vitality↓10pp31→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Team Vitality↓8pp21→13¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.