Liga Endesa
Leader sits at 49% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
49¢
Winner: Surne Bilbao Basket
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 8, 2026
30 days
Venue
Polymarket
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Liga Endesa: Winner
Liga Endesa: Winner: Bàsquet Girona
0x75e8b5…4d2b
Liga Endesa: Winner: Valencia Basket
0x2236c2…3b83
Liga Endesa: Winner: Unicaja Málaga
0x5095b2…5262
Liga Endesa: Winner: Río Breogán
0x438c42…2a13
Liga Endesa: Winner: Real Madrid
0xffafb1…8e29
Liga Endesa: Winner: Joventut Badalona
0x2410f0…4eab
Liga Endesa: Winner: La Laguna Tenerife
0x6bdbf5…c8d0
Liga Endesa: Winner: UCAM Murcia
0x12e210…ada9
Liga Endesa: Winner: Surne Bilbao Basket
0xff5773…d1a9
Liga Endesa: Winner: FC Barcelona
0xc0a906…392e
Liga Endesa: Winner: BAXI Manresa
0x66486b…1177
Liga Endesa: Winner: Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz
0xd8d8c0…f3b3
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that a specific team wins the Liga Endesa (Spain's top basketball league) championship. Currently, five teams—Casademont Zaragoza, UCAM Murcia, Valencia Basket, Joventut Badalona, and Río Breogán—are priced nearly equally, with each claiming roughly 50% implied probability at the leadership level. The market appears fragmented with minimal trading volume, suggesting either genuine uncertainty about the playoff outcomes or limited liquidity. The outcome will be determined by the Liga Endesa playoffs, which culminate in the finals later in 2026. Changes in this probability would reflect injuries to key players, unexpected playoff performances, or shifts in market participants' assessments of team strength. The resolution occurs when the championship is awarded and one team is definitively crowned champion.
- ›Five teams hold nearly identical contract prices (49-50¢), indicating the market perceives a closely competitive field with no clear favorite
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume across top contracts suggests sparse market participation and potentially wide bid-ask spreads that don't reflect genuine belief shifts
- ›Liga Endesa playoff structure (knockout rounds leading to finals) means upsets or injuries to star players could rapidly reprrice expectations
- ›Regular season standings and head-to-head records through early May 2026 establish baseline competitive rankings that traders would reference
- ›Championship resolution date is fixed by Liga Endesa's official playoff schedule, creating a definite deadline for market settlement
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.