Will Sporting Lisbon win the Liga Portugal
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
17%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
7 contracts
Closes
Jun 8, 2026
30 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will SL Benfica win the Liga Portugal
Will SL Benfica win the Liga Portugal?: SL Benfica
KXLIGAPORTUGAL-26-BEN
Cluster 2
Will Nacional da Madeira win the Liga Portugal
Will Nacional da Madeira win the Liga Portugal?: Nacional da Madeira
KXLIGAPORTUGAL-26-CDN
Cluster 3
Will Moreirense FC win the Liga Portugal
Will Moreirense FC win the Liga Portugal?: Moreirense FC
KXLIGAPORTUGAL-26-MOR
Cluster 4
Will Rio Ave FC win the Liga Portugal
Will Rio Ave FC win the Liga Portugal?: Rio Ave FC
KXLIGAPORTUGAL-26-RAV
Cluster 5
Will FC Arouca win the Liga Portugal
Will FC Arouca win the Liga Portugal?: FC Arouca
KXLIGAPORTUGAL-26-ARO
Cluster 6
Will Estrela Amadora win the Liga Portugal
Will Estrela Amadora win the Liga Portugal?: Estrela Amadora
KXLIGAPORTUGAL-26-ESA
Cluster 7
Will AVS Futebol SAD win the Liga Portugal
Will AVS Futebol SAD win the Liga Portugal?: AVS Futebol SAD
KXLIGAPORTUGAL-26-AVS
Analysis
This 27% probability indicates markets assess Sporting Lisbon as a meaningful but not favored contender to win the 2025-26 Liga Portugal season. The assessment reflects Sporting's recent performance relative to established rivals, particularly Benfica and Porto, which typically command larger market shares in Portuguese football. Key factors maintaining this mid-range probability include Sporting's squad depth, managerial stability, and injury status entering the final stretch of the season. The probability could shift substantially based on head-to-head results against top competitors in remaining matches and the transfer activity during any upcoming windows. The most concrete catalyst would be Sporting's performance over the next 4-6 weeks of league fixtures, which will clarify their trajectory relative to current leaders and establish whether they can realistically close any point gap before the season concludes.
- ›Current points tally and goal differential compared to Benfica and Porto as of early May 2026
- ›Sporting's historical win rate in direct matchups against the top two competitors this season
- ›Availability and fitness status of key players, particularly in attack and midfield, for remaining fixtures
- ›Remaining fixture difficulty—schedule strength compared to competing clubs still in contention
- ›Kalshi market volume and contract pricing stability, indicating confidence or uncertainty in the 27% assessment
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 d ago.