Ligue 1
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 56% across 9 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
56%
9 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$306
9 contracts
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
115 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Ligue 1: Top” vs “Ligue 1: Goalkeeper Clean Sheets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Ligue 1: Top
Cluster 2
Ligue 1: Goalkeeper Clean Sheets
Cluster 3
Ligue 1: Team to qualify for UEFA Champions League: M
Cluster 4
Ligue 1: Most Assists: Adrien Thomasson
Ligue 1: Most Assists: Adrien Thomasson
0xd0df11…7017
Analysis
This 46% probability reflects market expectations about Ligue 1 outcomes for the 2025-26 season, likely centered on mid-table finishes and individual player performance. The aggregate probability appears driven by uncertainty around whether established clubs like Marseille and Lens will secure top-four finishes and Champions League qualification, with their current market prices (3¢ and 96¢ respectively) indicating divergent expectations. Key variables include the trajectory of French clubs' summer transfer activity, injury status of top performers like Mason Greenwood, and early-season form through September 2026, when the competitive structure typically becomes clearer. The resolution of these contracts will depend primarily on the final league standings in June 2026 and accumulated statistics tracked throughout the campaign.
- ›Marseille's market price of 3¢ for top-4 finish suggests very low consensus confidence despite being a historically strong club
- ›Greenwood at 10¢ as top goalscorer versus Lepaul at 81¢ indicates significant disagreement on individual scoring performance predictions
- ›Lens priced at 96¢ for Champions League qualification shows high confidence in that outcome, potentially anchoring the overall probability
- ›Contract volumes are relatively thin ($31–$176 per day), suggesting limited market liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads affecting price accuracy
- ›The 19-contract aggregate includes diverse outcomes (team finishes, individual awards, qualification status) that may not represent a single coherent prediction
What moved the line
- May 8Most Assists: Adrien Thomasson↑30pp61→91¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Top Goalscorer : Esteban Lepaul↑12pp81→93¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Most Assists: Adrien Thomasson↑7pp48→55¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Most Assists: Adrien Thomasson↑6pp55→61¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Top Goalscorer : Esteban Lepaul↑4pp90→94¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.