Ligue 1: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor)
Leader sits at 57% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 47%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Auxerre
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
47¢
16th Place (Relegation Survi
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$17
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
23 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Ligue 1: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor)
Ligue 1: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Nantes
0x52fcf5…d801
Ligue 1: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Auxerre
0xc7226a…328c
Ligue 1: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Le Havre
0x8e682a…42cd
Ligue 1: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): Nice
0x87bc1c…797f
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that a specific Ligue 1 team will finish 16th and survive relegation in the 2025-26 season. The 54% probability for the leading contract suggests moderate confidence in one particular team's survival, with a runner-up at 49% indicating meaningful uncertainty about which team will claim that spot. Relegation outcomes depend on accumulated points through the season's final matches, typically decided in May. Teams currently competing for 16th place face variable fixtures, injury pressures, and managerial decisions in the closing weeks. The market price reflects both historical performance data and real-time assessment of each team's goal differential, recent form, and remaining schedule. As the season progresses toward conclusion, contract prices will adjust based on actual match results and point totals, with the outcome determined by official final standings.
- ›Actual point differential between the leading contract's team and competing teams in the relegation zone as of early May 2026
- ›Remaining fixture difficulty: strength of schedule for teams fighting 16th place over final matchdays
- ›Recent form trends: win-loss records and goal-scoring efficiency for frontrunner versus rivals in last 5-10 matches
- ›Head-to-head results and goal differential in direct matches between the leading contract's team and nearest competitors for 16th
- ›Injury status and suspension availability of key players for the frontrunner team during final matches
What moved the line
- May 316th Place (Relegation Survivor): Nice↓3pp45→42¢ · Polymarket
- May 616th Place (Relegation Survivor): Nice↑3pp42→45¢ · Polymarket
- May 316th Place (Relegation Survivor): Le Havre↓3pp45→42¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.