Ligue 1: 2nd Place Finish
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
4%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
23 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Ligue 1: 2nd Place Finish: Lyon
Ligue 1: 2nd Place Finish: Lyon
0xd0dff5…3b1a
Analysis
This contract reflects an expectation that a specific outcome will occur with 97% confidence, based on aggregated market pricing. The high probability suggests strong consensus among traders, though the underlying contracts span diverse categories—from English football league standings to international elections—indicating this is a bundle of related positions rather than a single event. Movement in this probability would depend on shifts in any of the component contracts, with the most liquid positions (Arsenal vs. Manchester City for 2nd place in the Premier League) likely driving overall changes. Key catalysts include final match days for respective competitions and official election results as scheduled dates arrive. Traders monitoring this contract should track the individual components separately, as movement in lower-volume contracts can create outsize price swings in the aggregate.
- ›The Premier League 2nd-place contracts (Arsenal 39¢, Man City 61¢) represent the highest trading volume at $6,868 combined 24h volume and will likely determine aggregate price direction
- ›Peruvian presidential election (Roberto Sánchez Palomino at 95¢) and Brazilian election contracts carry much lower liquidity ($2,123 and $881 respectively), making them more susceptible to large percentage moves from smaller trades
- ›The multi-outcome structure means this 97% probability reflects the leader's price across all bundled contracts, not a simple average, so a single component rallying does not proportionally shift the headline
- ›Resolution depends on official final results from geographically and temporally dispersed events (Premier League season end, Peru election first round, Brazil election first round, Georgia GOP primary)
- ›Significant divergence between individual contract prices (Arsenal-City near 50-50 vs. Sánchez Palomino near certainty) suggests heterogeneous market confidence across different prediction categories
What moved the line
- May 22nd Place Finish: Lyon↓15pp15→0¢ · Polymarket
- May 62nd Place Finish: Lyon↑10pp1→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 82nd Place Finish: Lyon↓7pp11→4¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 h ago.