Ligue 1 - Top Goalscorer
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 96% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
96%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$174
1 contracts
Closes
May 30, 2026
21 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Ligue 1: Top Goalscorer : Esteban Lepaul
Ligue 1: Top Goalscorer : Esteban Lepaul
0xec1254…3eb1
Analysis
This probability reflects market confidence that Esteban Lepaul will finish the 2026 Ligue 1 season as the league's top goalscorer. At 81%, the market is pricing this as a strong lean toward Lepaul, with the second-place contender at 10%. The current level likely reflects Lepaul's recent scoring form and goal tally relative to competitors mid-season. The main drivers pushing the probability up or down would be injury status, playing time consistency, and whether competing forwards maintain or accelerate their own goal-scoring pace through the remaining fixtures. The resolution will occur at the end of the 2026 Ligue 1 season, when final statistics determine who accumulated the most goals across all matches. Trading activity and price movement may intensify as the season approaches its conclusion and injury or performance developments become clearer.
- ›Lepaul's current goal tally and rate compared to the runner-up; a significant drop in his scoring or injury would pressure the probability downward
- ›Playing time and minutes availability for Lepaul versus competing forwards, particularly if rotation or tactical changes limit his opportunities
- ›Performance trajectory of the runner-up (currently 10%) and whether that player or other competitors gain ground through consistent scoring
- ›Match scheduling and fixture difficulty in remaining Ligue 1 games, which can affect scoring opportunities for all contenders
- ›Historical volatility of the top-goalscorer race at this stage of the season and whether the market view has typically shifted significantly by final matchday
What moved the line
- May 6Top Goalscorer : Esteban Lepaul↑12pp81→93¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Top Goalscorer : Esteban Lepaul↑4pp90→94¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Top Goalscorer : Esteban Lepaul↓3pp93→90¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.