Lille at Paris
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 53% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
53%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$131
10 contracts
Closes
May 24, 2026
16 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will both teams score
Cluster 2
Stade Brest at PSG: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score
Stade Brest at PSG: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score
KXLIGUE1BTTS-26MAY10PSGSTB
Cluster 3
Lyon at Toulouse: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score
Lyon at Toulouse: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score
KXLIGUE1BTTS-26MAY10TFCOL
Cluster 4
Strasbourg Alsace at Angers: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score
Strasbourg Alsace at Angers: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score
KXLIGUE1BTTS-26MAY10ANGRCS
Cluster 5
Paris at Stade Rennais: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score
Paris at Stade Rennais: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score
KXLIGUE1BTTS-26MAY10RENPAR
Cluster 6
Marseille at Le Havre: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score
Marseille at Le Havre: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score
KXLIGUE1BTTS-26MAY10HACOM
Cluster 7
Lorient at Metz: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score
Lorient at Metz: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score
KXLIGUE1BTTS-26MAY10FCMFCL
Cluster 8
Nice at Auxerre: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score
Nice at Auxerre: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score
KXLIGUE1BTTS-26MAY10AUXNIC
Cluster 9
Lille at Monaco: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score
Lille at Monaco: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score
KXLIGUE1BTTS-26MAY10ASMLIL
What moved the line
- May 6Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score↑19pp41→60¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score↑5pp48→53¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score↑5pp54→59¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score↑5pp55→60¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score↑4pp44→48¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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