SimpleFunctions
10 contractsKalshirefreshed 3 min agoCloses May 24, 2026 · 16d

Lille at Paris

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 53% across 10 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

53%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

53%

10 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$131

10 contracts

Closes

May 24, 2026

16 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 41% (4 days, 4 points)Aggregate: 41% on 2026-05-08
Aggregate of 10 contracts · 4d

Bracket families

9 clusters across 10 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will both teams score

2 contracts$0

Cluster 2

Stade Brest at PSG: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

1 contract$131

Cluster 3

Lyon at Toulouse: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Strasbourg Alsace at Angers: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Paris at Stade Rennais: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Marseille at Le Havre: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Lorient at Metz: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Nice at Auxerre: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Lille at Monaco: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score

1 contract$0

What moved the line

  • May 6Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score19pp4160¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score5pp4853¢ · Kalshi
  • May 7Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score5pp5459¢ · Kalshi
  • May 7Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score5pp5560¢ · Kalshi
  • May 8Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score4pp4448¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.