Stade Brest vs Lens Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
36%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$11K
20 contracts
Closes
May 27, 2026
19 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “PSG vs Stade Brest Winner” vs “Toulouse vs Lyon Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
PSG vs Stade Brest Winner
Cluster 2
Toulouse vs Lyon Winner
Cluster 3
Le Havre vs Marseille Winner
Cluster 4
Auxerre vs Nice Winner
Cluster 5
Lens vs PSG Winner
Cluster 6
Monaco vs Lille Winner
Cluster 7
Angers vs Strasbourg Alsace Winner
Cluster 8
Metz vs Lorient Winner
Metz vs Lorient Winner?: Lorient
KXLIGUE1GAME-26MAY10FCMFCL-FCL
Cluster 9
Stade Rennais vs Paris Winner
Stade Rennais vs Paris Winner?: Stade Rennais
KXLIGUE1GAME-26MAY10RENPAR-REN
What moved the line
- May 6PSG↑52pp32→84¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Lyon↑49pp5→54¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Marseille↑42pp5→47¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Lorient↑39pp5→44¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Strasbourg Alsace↑36pp5→41¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.