Will Bryson DeChambeau lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$35K
15 contracts
Closes
May 24, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Bryson DeChambeau lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia
Cluster 2
Will Tyrrell Hatton lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia
Will Tyrrell Hatton lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia?: Tyrrell Hatton
KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGV26-THAT
Cluster 3
Will Jose Luis Ballester lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia
Cluster 4
Will Thomas Detry lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia
Will Thomas Detry lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia?: Thomas Detry
KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGV26-TDET
Cluster 5
Will David Puig lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia
Will David Puig lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia?: David Puig
KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGV26-DPUI
Cluster 6
Will Ian Poulter lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia
Will Ian Poulter lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia?: Ian Poulter
KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGV26-IPOU
Cluster 7
Will Joaquin Niemann lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia
Will Joaquin Niemann lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia?: Joaquin Niemann
KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGV26-JNIE
Cluster 8
Will Anthony Kim lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia
Will Anthony Kim lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia?: Anthony Kim
KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGV26-AKIM
Cluster 9
Will Dustin Johnson lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia
Will Dustin Johnson lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia?: Dustin Johnson
KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGV26-DJOH
Cluster 10
Will Carlos Ortiz lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia
Will Carlos Ortiz lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia?: Carlos Ortiz
KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGV26-CORT
Cluster 11
Will Branden Grace lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia
Will Branden Grace lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia?: Branden Grace
KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGV26-BGRA
Cluster 12
Will Jason Kokrak lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia
Will Jason Kokrak lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia?: Jason Kokrak
KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGV26-JKOK
Cluster 13
Will Abraham Ancer lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia
Will Abraham Ancer lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia?: Abraham Ancer
KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGV26-AANC
Cluster 14
Will Dean Burmester lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia
Will Dean Burmester lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia?: Dean Burmester
KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGV26-DBUR
Cluster 15
Will Tom McKibbin lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia
Will Tom McKibbin lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf Virginia?: Tom McKibbin
KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGV26-TMCK
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated chance that Bryson DeChambeau will hold the outright lead after 18 holes at the LIV Golf Virginia event. At 5%, the market is assigning him relatively low odds compared to some competitors like Jose Luis Ballester (4%) but in line with other established players. DeChambeau's odds are shaped primarily by his recent form and historical performance in first-round scoring. The contract remains low-volume ($113 in 24-hour trading), suggesting limited conviction either way. The event's Round 1 completion will definitively resolve this contract once final leaderboard standings are posted.
- ›DeChambeau's scoring performance in recent LIV events and round-one specific statistics
- ›Field strength and number of players within striking distance after 18 holes at this particular course
- ›Course conditions and weather on the tournament's opening day
- ›Market concentration on Jose Luis Ballester at 4¢ indicates probabilistic clustering around a narrow leader pool
- ›Trading volume of $113 in 24 hours reflects sparse liquidity, suggesting limited analytical attention or consensus on this specific outcome
What moved the line
- May 7Carlos Ortiz↑44pp2→46¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Anthony Kim↑25pp1→26¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Tyrrell Hatton↑4pp2→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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