LIV Golf Virginia

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract estimates the probability that Joaquin Niemann finishes in the top 10 at the LIV Golf Virginia event. At 40%, the market prices this outcome as more likely than not, but with substantial uncertainty. Niemann's recent form, course fit, and consistency in LIV events are primary drivers of the probability. The outcome will be determined by tournament results once play concludes, making this essentially a bet on his performance against the field in Virginia. Market liquidity remains limited, with modest 24-hour volume suggesting few traders are actively reassessing this contract relative to competing outcomes for other LIV Golf Virginia competitors.

• ›Niemann's top-10 finish probability at 40% significantly exceeds runner-up Branden Grace at 31%, indicating market confidence in Niemann as the most likely top-10 finisher among LIV competitors in this event
• ›The contract shows no 24-hour trading volume, suggesting limited recent market activity and that the 40¢ price may reflect stale information rather than active reassessment
• ›Niemann's pricing is roughly 4x higher than Anirban Lahiri (10¢), Adrian Meronk (7¢), and Byeong Hun An (13¢), concentrating top-10 probability among the favorites
• ›The multi-outcome structure with 20 bound contracts means probabilities must sum to 100%, creating interdependencies where Niemann's 40% implies limited likelihood spread across other competitors
• ›Course-specific performance data, recent tournament results, field strength, and playing conditions at the Virginia venue would directly influence whether Niemann achieves a top-10 finish

What moved the line

• May 8Will Sergio Garcia finish top 10?: Sergio Garcia↑32pp15→47¢ · Kalshi
• May 7Will Thomas Detry finish top 10?: Thomas Detry↓26pp40→14¢ · Kalshi
• May 8Will Jon Rahm finish top 10?: Jon Rahm↑24pp43→67¢ · Kalshi
• May 8Will Dean Burmester finish top 10?: Dean Burmester↑22pp22→44¢ · Kalshi
• May 8Will Cameron Tringale finish top 10?: Cameron Tringale↓18pp23→5¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds