LoL: CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner

30-day trend

Analysis

This 14% probability represents the market's current estimate that the outcome identified by contract 0x880adf690872257a73e9436ae626c859eb3b884de21e968631fe2b8b2c09e19c will occur in CBLOL 2026 Split 1. The relatively low probability reflects either high competitive uncertainty or a perception that a specific team faces structural disadvantages heading into the split. Market participants are likely weighing team roster changes, recent performance metrics, and coaching staff adjustments against each other. The main resolution driver will be the split's actual tournament results, with regular season outcomes providing early signals that could shift probabilities significantly. Early matches in the split schedule will be the critical catalyst for uncertainty reduction, as they'll provide concrete data on team coordination, meta adaptation, and individual player performance against competitors.

• ›Red Canids trades at 45¢ on the primary market while the aggregated leader sits at 14¢, indicating potential disagreement across different contract specifications or market inefficiency
• ›24-hour trading volume on the primary contract ($1057) is 2.5x higher than the runner-up ($417), suggesting active price discovery but concentrated on one outcome
• ›The three Polymarket contracts average to 8%, which is below the 14% headline probability, indicating the leader contract may be pricing different conditions or attracting different trader preferences
• ›No recent contract additions or volume spikes are evident, suggesting traders are waiting for scheduled matches or roster announcements to reassess
• ›The gap between the 14% leader and 7% runner-up represents only 7 percentage points absolute difference, indicating genuinely competitive uncertainty rather than consensus

What moved the line

• May 2CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: Keyd Stars↓28pp43→15¢ · Polymarket
• May 6CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: RED Canids↓27pp52→25¢ · Polymarket
• May 6CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: LOUD↑19pp7→26¢ · Polymarket
• May 6CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: FURIA↑15pp13→28¢ · Polymarket
• May 8CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: RED Canids↑12pp25→37¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds