LoL: LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner
Leader sits at 66% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 65%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Volticons
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
65¢
LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Gol
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$35
thin orderbook
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
LoL: LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner
Analysis
Maze Gaming is currently priced at a 48% probability to win the LRS 2026 Split 1 championship, making them the favorite but not heavily favored—roughly 7 percentage points ahead of their nearest competitor. This probability reflects market assessment of their roster strength, recent performance, and consistency relative to other regional teams. The pricing would move based on roster changes, playoff seeding announcements, or team performance in preliminary matches. The main catalyst for resolution is the LRS Split 1 playoffs, where final standings and bracket results will determine the actual winner. Currently modest trading volume ($417 over 24 hours in the runner-up contract) suggests limited liquidity, which can amplify price swings if new information emerges about team composition or injuries.
- ›Maze Gaming's 48% probability is 7 points above the runner-up, indicating clear but not overwhelming market confidence in their championship chances
- ›The five-way market structure means the leader winning ~48% implies three other teams share roughly 52% combined probability, reflecting competitive uncertainty
- ›LRS 2026 Split 1 playoffs represent the primary resolution event; regular season performance and seeding will be the key catalyst for probability shifts
- ›Low trading volumes in related contracts ($208–$417 daily) suggest the market remains information-constrained and could reprice significantly on roster announcements or match results
- ›Comparison to other regional tournaments shows varying confidence levels (RED Canids at 45% in CBLOL, Bilibili at 48% in LPL), reflecting different competitive tiers and team stability
What moved the line
- May 6LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Golden Lions↑23pp18→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 6LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Volticons↑18pp16→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 7LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Volticons↑14pp34→48¢ · Polymarket
- May 7LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Golden Lions↑9pp41→50¢ · Polymarket
- May 2LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Volticons↓8pp24→16¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (66% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.