LPL 2026 Split 2 Winner
Leader sits at 54% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Bilibili Gaming
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
Anyone's Legend
Spread
30pp
contested
24h volume
$260
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
LPL 2026 Split 2 Winner
Analysis
This probability indicates that market participants estimate Bilibili Gaming has a 48% chance of winning the LPL 2026 Split 2 tournament, ahead of a runner-up at 25%. The estimate reflects the team's recent performance, roster strength, and track record in competition. The probability could shift based on team performance during the season's early matches, which would reveal mechanical consistency and meta adaptation. The main catalyst is the split's opening week of matches, scheduled to begin in early May 2026, where early wins or losses would provide concrete data on team form. Trading volume suggests moderate market confidence rather than consensus, with roughly $2.5k in combined daily volume across related contracts indicating active but cautious positioning.
- ›Bilibili Gaming's 48% probability exceeds all other teams by 23 percentage points, suggesting market consensus around their superiority but not dominant certainty
- ›LPL 2026 Season Winner contracts show Bilibili Gaming at 51¢ while Top Esports trades at 11¢, indicating market coherence across different time horizons
- ›Trading volume is modest ($1-1.5k per contract on average), suggesting the market has not yet priced in information from early split matches or roster changes
- ›The probability reflects pre-split or very early-split conditions; performance data from week 1-2 matches would be the most immediate resolution driver
- ›Related LoL regional tournaments (CBLOL, LRS) show diverse probabilities (19-45¢), indicating markets differentiate between regions rather than treating all LoL competition equally
What moved the line
- May 7JD Gaming↑12pp12→24¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Top Esports↓8pp24→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Top Esports↓7pp31→24¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Bilibili Gaming↓6pp50→44¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Anyone's Legend↓5pp27→22¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.