LRN 2026 Split 1 Winner
Leader sits at 81% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 47%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Fuego
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
47¢
SDM Tigres
Spread
34pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
LRN 2026 Split 1 Winner
Analysis
This 66% probability represents the current market estimate that a specific esports organization will win the LRN 2026 Split 1 championship. The leader commands a significant majority of trading volume, suggesting market confidence in that outcome relative to alternatives priced at 20% and lower. The price reflects accumulated bets on recent team performance, roster strength, and competitive standings heading into the playoffs. What would move this probability depends on playoff results—strong tournament performances by the leading contender would reinforce the current odds, while unexpected losses or roster issues would shift weight toward challengers. The final resolution occurs when the LRN 2026 Split 1 playoffs conclude and a champion is crowned, likely within weeks. Current trading volume concentrates on this contract and the CBLOL equivalent, indicating these are the most actively traded regional league outcomes among the available options.
- ›The leader contract maintains 66% probability with $1057 in 24-hour volume, substantially higher than runner-up alternatives at 20% and lower
- ›Three separate contracts on Polymarket for this outcome span regional leagues (CBLOL, LRS, and others), suggesting fragmented betting interest across related but distinct competitions
- ›The price curve shows a concentrated probability distribution rather than dispersed uncertainty, with the top contract capturing two-thirds of implied likelihood
- ›Playoff timing and bracket progression will be the primary catalyst for repricing, as tournament results eliminate teams and clarify championship likelihood
- ›LRN-specific team rosters and recent regular-season performance data form the informational basis underlying current market positions
What moved the line
- May 6Fuego↑17pp66→83¢ · Polymarket
- May 7SDM Tigres↑9pp22→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 3G3V E-sports↓9pp32→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 3SDM Tigres↓6pp26→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 6G3V E-sports↓6pp23→17¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.