LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner
Leader sits at 33% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Secret Whales
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
Fukuoka SoftBank HAWKS gamin
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 7, 2026
29 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner
LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Secret Whales
0x570ebf…cde8
LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: CTBC Flying Oyster
0xe97243…6f1a
LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Fukuoka SoftBank HAWKS gaming
0x4d8998…ffeb
LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Deep Cross Gaming
0xbfdf6a…98ab
LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: MVK Esports
0x098a6f…ca40
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Volticons will win the LRS 2026 Split 1 championship in League of Legends' Latin American region. At 19%, traders view Volticons as a competitive but not dominant favorite—well behind Golden Lions at 41¢. The pricing likely reflects Volticons' recent roster performance, win-loss record, and head-to-head matchup data against other LRS teams. The main drivers are team mechanical skill, coaching adjustments, and consistency through the regular season and playoffs. The Split 1 finals, scheduled for early June 2026, will definitively resolve this contract. Until then, weekly match results and standings changes will shift probabilities as teams accumulate wins and losses, revealing which squads are genuine contenders versus early-season overperformers.
- ›Volticons' regular season win-loss record relative to other LRS teams; teams with losing records typically see probability declines
- ›Head-to-head matchup history between Volticons and higher-priced competitors like Golden Lions in spring matches
- ›Golden Lions trading at 41¢ versus Volticons at 19¢ suggests market expects Golden Lions to be a stronger playoff threat based on available roster and performance data
- ›Split 1 playoff bracket structure and seeding; higher seeds have statistical advantages that shift contract values
- ›The 24-hour trading volume of $417 on the Volticons contract is modest, meaning large trades could move the price until more market participants establish positions
What moved the line
- May 7Deep Cross Gaming↓35pp38→3¢ · Polymarket
- May 6CTBC Flying Oyster↓35pp38→3¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Deep Cross Gaming↑32pp6→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Fukuoka SoftBank HAWKS gaming↑21pp16→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Secret Whales↓13pp31→18¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.