Will Lyft Inc. report above 235 million total rides in Q1 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 6, 2026
29 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Lyft Inc. report above 255 million total rides in Q1 2026
Will Lyft Inc. report above 255 million total rides in Q1 2026?: Above 255 million
KXLYFT-26MAYRIDES-255000000
Analysis
This contract reflects an 89% probability that Lyft will report more than 235 million total rides for Q1 2026. The high probability suggests market confidence in Lyft maintaining or exceeding this ridership threshold, likely based on historical growth trends and post-pandemic demand recovery in ride-sharing. Key factors pushing the probability up include consistent year-over-year ridership growth and seasonal strength in Q1. Downward pressure could come from economic slowdown, increased competition from Uber, or reduced consumer spending on transportation. The resolution will depend entirely on Lyft's Q1 2026 earnings report, expected in late April or May 2026, which will provide the official ride count. Related Lyft contracts show much lower probabilities for higher thresholds (245 million and 250 million rides), indicating market expectations cluster around 235-245 million rides for the quarter.
- ›Lyft's Q1 2025 ridership baseline and year-over-year growth rate directly inform whether 235 million rides in Q1 2026 is achievable
- ›Macro conditions including fuel prices, employment rates, and consumer discretionary spending in Q1 2026 will affect ride-sharing demand
- ›The 42% probability on the 245 million rides contract suggests the market sees material uncertainty above 235 million, indicating 235-245 million is the expected range
- ›Competitive pressure from Uber, reflected in its high trip volumes across higher thresholds, may constrain Lyft's market share gains
- ›Official earnings announcement timing and reporting standards for 'total rides' definition will determine contract settlement in May-June 2026
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 h ago.