Will Lyft Inc. report above 235 million total rides in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 92% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 84%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
above 248 million
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
84¢
above 251 million
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 4, 2026
71 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Lyft Inc. report above 2
Will Lyft Inc. report above 248 million total rides in Q2 2026?: above 248 million
KXLYFT-26AUGRIDES-P248000000
Will Lyft Inc. report above 260 million total rides in Q2 2026?: above 260 million
KXLYFT-26AUGRIDES-P260000000
Will Lyft Inc. report above 257 million total rides in Q2 2026?: above 257 million
KXLYFT-26AUGRIDES-P257000000
Will Lyft Inc. report above 254 million total rides in Q2 2026?: above 254 million
KXLYFT-26AUGRIDES-P254000000
Will Lyft Inc. report above 251 million total rides in Q2 2026?: above 251 million
KXLYFT-26AUGRIDES-P251000000
Analysis
This contract reflects an 89% probability that Lyft will report more than 235 million total rides for Q1 2026. The high probability suggests market confidence in Lyft maintaining or exceeding this ridership threshold, likely based on historical growth trends and post-pandemic demand recovery in ride-sharing. Key factors pushing the probability up include consistent year-over-year ridership growth and seasonal strength in Q1. Downward pressure could come from economic slowdown, increased competition from Uber, or reduced consumer spending on transportation. The resolution will depend entirely on Lyft's Q1 2026 earnings report, expected in late April or May 2026, which will provide the official ride count. Related Lyft contracts show much lower probabilities for higher thresholds (245 million and 250 million rides), indicating market expectations cluster around 235-245 million rides for the quarter.
- ›Lyft's Q1 2025 ridership baseline and year-over-year growth rate directly inform whether 235 million rides in Q1 2026 is achievable
- ›Macro conditions including fuel prices, employment rates, and consumer discretionary spending in Q1 2026 will affect ride-sharing demand
- ›The 42% probability on the 245 million rides contract suggests the market sees material uncertainty above 235 million, indicating 235-245 million is the expected range
- ›Competitive pressure from Uber, reflected in its high trip volumes across higher thresholds, may constrain Lyft's market share gains
- ›Official earnings announcement timing and reporting standards for 'total rides' definition will determine contract settlement in May-June 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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