MA-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 51% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 42%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Stephen Lynch
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
42¢
Patrick Roath
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$27
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
115 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
MA-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
This probability indicates the market's assessment that the leading candidate in Massachusetts's 8th congressional district Democratic primary has roughly a 48% chance of winning, with a strong challenger at 41%. The moderate gap between the top two contenders reflects meaningful uncertainty about the race outcome. Movements in this probability would likely respond to campaign funding data, endorsement announcements from party figures, or polling releases. The primary election date itself represents the ultimate resolution event that will determine the actual winner and settle all contracts. Until then, shifts in candidate visibility, organizational strength, and voter sentiment in the district will drive market reassessment of these probabilities.
- ›Gap between leader (48%) and runner-up (41%) is 7 percentage points, indicating competitive race rather than clear frontrunner
- ›Polymarket volume across three contracts ($816 in 24-hour trading) provides moderate liquidity but limited depth for high-confidence price discovery
- ›Massachusetts primary election date will serve as hard resolution point for all contracts
- ›Candidate fundraising reports and endorsements from state/federal Democratic figures would provide concrete data to shift probabilities
- ›Polling data or turnout metrics specific to MA-08 district would offer measurable input for market repricing
What moved the line
- May 6Stephen Lynch↑26pp46→72¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Stephen Lynch↓14pp61→47¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Stephen Lynch↓11pp72→61¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Patrick Roath↓11pp47→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Patrick Roath↑8pp31→39¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.