Maduro Prison Time?
Leader sits at 35% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
60+
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
23¢
No prison time
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$2
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
601 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Maduro Prison Time
Analysis
This contract estimates a 35% probability that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro receives a prison sentence of 60 years or longer. The market reflects uncertainty around potential international prosecution for alleged crimes against humanity, corruption, or drug trafficking—charges he faces in some jurisdictions but denies. The probability would rise if extradition proceedings advance, if a credible transitional government emerges in Venezuela with prosecutorial authority, or if existing court cases in third countries gain momentum. It would fall if political conditions stabilize, immunity agreements materialize, or incumbent power structures persist. The near-term catalyst involves developments in Venezuelan domestic politics and any movement in pending international legal cases, though no single scheduled event currently drives resolution.
- ›Maduro maintains de facto control of Venezuela's security apparatus and government as of May 2026, creating substantial barriers to prosecution or extradition
- ›Multiple jurisdictions have indictments or investigation frameworks (US, ICC preliminary examination), but actual custody or trial remains unexecuted and uncertain
- ›The runner-up outcome ('No prison time' at 28%) suggests material market uncertainty; the 35% leader is narrow plurality rather than consensus
- ›Polymarket contract volumes are minimal across most tiers ($61 in 24h volume on the leading contract), indicating thin liquidity and potential for price movements on small trades
- ›Resolution depends on political transitions, international cooperation frameworks, and legal proceedings with no firm timeline—inherently speculative across multi-year horizons
What moved the line
- May 6No prison time↓7pp29→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 620–40↑5pp13→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 720–40↑3pp18→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 820–40↓3pp21→18¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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