SimpleFunctions
ResolvedFinal: Childcare. Last odds shown below are frozen at close (May 6, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all · 14 outcomes14 contractsKalshiclosed 2 d agoCloses May 27, 2026 · 18d

What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement

Leader sits at 36% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

36%

Afford / Affordable / Affordability

runner-up 32¢leader 36¢

Outcomes

14

winner-take-all

Runner-up

32¢

Safe / Safer / Safety

Spread

4pp

contested

24h volume

$9K

modest

Closes

May 27, 2026

18 days

Venue

Kalshi

14 bound

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement

14 contracts$9K
OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?: Afford / Affordable / Affordability

KXMAMDANIMENTION-26MAY05-AFFO

36¢$2KK

What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?: NYPD

KXMAMDANIMENTION-26MAY05-NYPD

10¢$2KK

What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?: Safe / Safer / Safety

KXMAMDANIMENTION-26MAY05-SAFE

32¢$1KK

What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?: Governor / Hochul

KXMAMDANIMENTION-26MAY05-GOVE

3¢$792K

What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?: Economy / Economic

KXMAMDANIMENTION-26MAY05-ECON

17¢$552K

What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?: Budget / Deficit

KXMAMDANIMENTION-26MAY05-BUDG

19¢$547K

What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?: Childcare

KXMAMDANIMENTION-26MAY05-CHIL

7¢$503K

What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?: Billionaire

KXMAMDANIMENTION-26MAY05-BILL

12¢$304K

What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?: Trump / President

KXMAMDANIMENTION-26MAY05-TRUM

24¢$297K

What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?: Knicks / Mets / Yankees

KXMAMDANIMENTION-26MAY05-KNIC

14¢$220K

What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?: Iran / Iranian

KXMAMDANIMENTION-26MAY05-IRAN

3¢$181K

What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?: Israel / Israeli

KXMAMDANIMENTION-26MAY05-ISRA

3¢$167K

What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?: Bus / Fast & Free

KXMAMDANIMENTION-26MAY05-BUS

12¢$97K

What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?: World Cup

KXMAMDANIMENTION-26MAY05-WORL

15¢$20K

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 d ago.