Will Duke be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
6 contracts
Closes
Apr 15, 2027
341 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Will Michigan” vs “Will UConn be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Michigan
Cluster 2
Will UConn be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament
Will UConn be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament?: UConn
KXMARMAD1SEED-27-CONN
Cluster 3
Will Louisville be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament
Will Louisville be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament?: Louisville
KXMARMAD1SEED-27-LOU
Cluster 4
Will Duke be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament
Will Duke be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament?: Duke
KXMARMAD1SEED-27-DUKE
Cluster 5
Will Florida be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament
Will Florida be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament?: Florida
KXMARMAD1SEED-27-FLA
Analysis
Duke has a 16% probability of receiving a #1 seed in the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, meaning the prediction market estimates roughly a 1-in-6 chance. The probability reflects expectations about Duke's performance during the 2026-27 season, considering current roster composition, recruiting success, and historical program strength under head coach Jon Scheyer. Key drivers are player development and transfer portal acquisitions over the summer, which typically determine competitive positioning before the season begins. The main catalyst resolving uncertainty will be the actual 2026-27 season performance, culminating in tournament seeding announcements in March 2027. Current 16% odds suggest moderate skepticism about Duke's title contention, likely accounting for uncertainty around returning talent and the highly competitive ACC landscape.
- ›Duke's 2026-27 roster composition, including transfers acquired and declared departures, versus peer ACC/NCAA programs
- ›Scheyer's track record recruiting elite talent and developing NBA-caliber players in his tenure since 2021
- ›Strength of schedule and conference record during 2026-27 season relative to other projected top programs
- ›Performance metrics including net rating, defensive efficiency, and tournament resume strength entering March 2027
- ›Transfer portal activity and early-season indicators (November-December 2026) that inform updated probability assessments
What moved the line
- May 2Michigan↑49pp1→50¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Michigan↓25pp34→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Michigan St.↓22pp26→4¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Michigan↓16pp50→34¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Florida↑8pp15→23¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.