Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Aug 1, 2026
Leader sits at 50% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 39%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2028
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
39¢
Before Jan 1, 2027
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$343
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
518 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before
Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26DEC01
Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-JAN01
Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jul 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027
KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-27JUL01
Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-28JAN01
Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26NOV01
Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26OCT01
Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26SEP01
Analysis
This reflects an 24% chance that Ken Martin steps down as Democratic National Committee chair before January 1, 2027. The relatively low probability suggests most market participants expect Martin to remain in the position through at least early 2027. Key drivers of this assessment include party stability concerns, the DNC's role in the 2026 midterm elections, and any internal leadership challenges that might surface. The most immediate resolution point is the June 1, 2026 deadline, which trades at just 7%, indicating minimal expectation of near-term departure. Movement in these probabilities would depend on public statements from party leadership, documented internal conflicts, electoral performance in the midterms, or Martin's own announcements about his tenure.
- ›Current trading prices show 7% probability of departure before June 1 versus 24% before January 1, suggesting market expects any departure, if it occurs, to happen after midterm elections conclude
- ›The DNC chair role carries heightened visibility during election cycles; midterm performance could influence retention decisions or internal pressure for leadership change
- ›No public reporting indicates imminent leadership challenges or health concerns that would trigger immediate departure
- ›Historical precedent shows DNC chairs typically serve full terms unless significant electoral losses or internal party fractures occur
- ›Market volume is minimal (zero 24h volume on the August and January contracts), indicating low trader interest and potentially wide bid-ask spreads
What moved the line
- Jul 28Before Jan 1, 2027↑14pp23→37¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 31Before Jan 1, 2027↑7pp33→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 29Before Sep 1, 2026↑6pp11→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 26Before Jan 1, 2027↑5pp18→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 29Before Jan 1, 2027↓5pp37→32¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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