Will A New Season of Prison Break be released Worldwide before Jan 1, 2030
Leader sits at 73% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 68%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2029
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
68¢
Before Jul 1, 2028
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$3
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
968 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will A New Season of Prison Break be released Worldwide before Jan 1, 2030
Will A New Season of Prison Break be released Worldwide before Jan 1, 2030?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXMEDIARELEASEPRISONBREAK-30JAN01-26JUL01
Will A New Season of Prison Break be released Worldwide before Jan 1, 2030?: Before Jan 1, 2029
KXMEDIARELEASEPRISONBREAK-30JAN01-29JAN01
Will A New Season of Prison Break be released Worldwide before Jan 1, 2030?: Before Jul 1, 2028
KXMEDIARELEASEPRISONBREAK-30JAN01-28JUL01
Will A New Season of Prison Break be released Worldwide before Jan 1, 2030?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXMEDIARELEASEPRISONBREAK-30JAN01-28JAN01
Will A New Season of Prison Break be released Worldwide before Jan 1, 2030?: Before Jul 1, 2027
KXMEDIARELEASEPRISONBREAK-30JAN01-27JUL01
Will A New Season of Prison Break be released Worldwide before Jan 1, 2030?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXMEDIARELEASEPRISONBREAK-30JAN01-27JAN01
Analysis
This contract tracks whether a new season of Prison Break will air worldwide before January 1, 2030, currently priced at 72%. The show, which concluded in 2017 after five seasons, would require a revival greenlight, production completion, and global distribution within approximately 3.5 years. The high probability reflects both the show's enduring popularity and streaming platforms' tendency to revive legacy franchises, though production timelines and network commitment remain uncertain. The critical catalyst will be any official announcement from Fox or a streaming service about renewal status; currently, no confirmed revival has been announced. Until such confirmation appears, the market is pricing in reasonable possibility based on broader industry trends rather than concrete development milestones.
- ›No official renewal announcement for Prison Break has been made by Fox or any streaming platform as of May 2026
- ›The original series concluded in 2017, and successful legacy revivals (Cobra Kai, Ozark revivals) typically take 2-4 years from greenlight to release
- ›Production, post-production, and global distribution typically require 12-18 months minimum after production begins
- ›Streaming services have actively invested in reviving established franchises, increasing baseline likelihood of consideration
- ›The 72% price significantly exceeds the 53% Kalshi average, suggesting leading contract traders assess higher probability than the aggregated market
What moved the line
- May 7Before Jul 1, 2026↓5pp24→19¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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