2026 Men's French Open Winner
Leader sits at 71% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 7%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Jannik Sinner
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
7¢
Alexander Zverev
Spread
64pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$36K
liquid
Closes
Jun 7, 2026
29 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2026 Men's French Open Winner
2026 Men's French Open Winner: Novak Djokovic
0x226e88…8847
2026 Men's French Open Winner: Arthur Fils
0xe3e8b3…57b7
2026 Men's French Open Winner: Rafael Jodar
0x3e166e…d934
2026 Men's French Open Winner: Alexander Zverev
0x739e75…1281
2026 Men's French Open Winner: Jannik Sinner
0x23e817…63fe
Analysis
The 68% probability reflects market expectations that Jannik Sinner will win the 2026 Men's French Open, with the remaining 32% distributed among other contenders. Sinner's current dominance in clay-court tennis and recent performance trajectory support this elevated probability, though injuries, form decline, or emergence of challengers could shift it downward. The French Open, typically held in late May/early June, represents a key test of whether Sinner can maintain or extend his clay-court supremacy. Market confidence concentrates heavily on Sinner, with runner-up Alexander Zverev at only 7%, suggesting traders view the field as relatively fragmented compared to the favorite.
- ›Sinner's recent clay-court performance record and ranking as of May 2026
- ›Zverev and Fils's tournament form and injury status entering the French Open
- ›Historical clay-court strength patterns and head-to-head records between top contenders
- ›Trading volume concentration ($7,764 on Zverev vs. $4,040 on Djokovic) indicating confidence asymmetry across the field
- ›The 32% probability mass assigned to all non-Sinner outcomes, suggesting meaningful uncertainty despite market favorite status
What moved the line
- May 6Jannik Sinner↑5pp67→72¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.