2026 Men’s Singles Roland Garros
Leader sits at 72% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: Jannik Sinner
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Winner: Alexander Zverev
Spread
64pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jun 8, 2026
30 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2026 Men’s Singles Roland Garros: Winner
2026 Men’s Singles Roland Garros: Winner: Jannik Sinner
0xe5a8f3…86e5
2026 Men’s Singles Roland Garros: Winner: Alex de Minaur
0x833f23…9d4e
2026 Men’s Singles Roland Garros: Winner: Alexander Zverev
0x043726…2d60
2026 Men’s Singles Roland Garros: Winner: Flavio Cobolli
0xc8eed8…1ef5
2026 Men’s Singles Roland Garros: Winner: Lorenzo Musetti
0x44f72e…341d
2026 Men’s Singles Roland Garros: Winner: Novak Djokovic
0x7f8e9f…1241
Analysis
This 68% probability reflects market expectations that Jannik Sinner will win the 2026 Men's Singles title at Roland Garros, scheduled for late May. Sinner's ranking, recent performance, and clay-court consistency have established him as the clear favorite, though the market assigns roughly 32% combined probability to other contenders. The price is primarily driven by his status as world number one and track record on European clay surfaces. Upcoming tournaments in spring 2026, injury reports, and performance at earlier clay events this season will likely adjust the probability meaningfully. The contract shows minimal trading volume ($3 in 24 hours), suggesting limited recent conviction shifts despite the high odds. Historically, favorites in Grand Slams face unpredictable challenges from Form variance, surface conditions, and draws that can alter outcomes substantially.
- ›Sinner's current ATP ranking and clay-court win rate relative to other top-10 competitors in May 2026
- ›Trading volume and price movement across competing contracts (Musetti at 3¢, Zverev at 12¢) indicating whether the 68¢ reflects consensus or concentrated bets
- ›Results from warm-up clay tournaments in April-May 2026 immediately preceding Roland Garros
- ›Injury or fitness status updates for Sinner and top 5 rivals in the 60 days before the tournament
- ›Head-to-head records and recent match outcomes between Sinner and the 12¢-priced contenders
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.