Mexico vs. Korea Republic
Leader sits at 51% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 29%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Mexico
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
29¢
Draw (Mexico vs. Korea Repub
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$4
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 19, 2026
41 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Mexico vs. Korea Republic
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Mexico will defeat Korea Republic in an upcoming match. The 60% probability suggests a lean toward Mexico, though the outcome remains genuinely contested. Mexico's higher ranking in the current FIFA standings and home-field advantage factors drive the elevated probability, while Korea Republic's defensive strength and tournament experience could shift expectations downward. The match result itself will provide definitive resolution, with actual team performance, injury status, and tactical matchups all influencing the final outcome. Market prices may shift substantially as the match date approaches based on team news, betting patterns, and any lineup adjustments.
- ›Mexico holds a higher FIFA ranking than Korea Republic as of early 2026
- ›The match venue location (home vs. away) affects probability significantly but is not specified in available data
- ›Recent head-to-head records or recent form of both teams would be a primary factor for probability calibration
- ›Injury status or suspension of key players for either team could shift probabilities materially
- ›The specific tournament context (group stage, knockout, friendly) affects the competitive stakes and team preparation levels
What moved the line
- May 3Mexico↑6pp55→61¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Mexico↓6pp61→55¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Draw (Mexico vs. Korea Republic)↓4pp32→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Korea Republic↓3pp30→27¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Mexico↓3pp55→52¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.