Mexico vs. South Africa
Leader sits at 66% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Mexico
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
Draw (Mexico vs. South Afric
Spread
45pp
contested
24h volume
$329
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 11, 2026
33 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Mexico vs. South Africa
Analysis
This probability indicates that Mexico is currently favored to win an unspecified matchup against South Africa, with traders assigning a 65% likelihood to a Mexico victory. The contract pricing reflects expectations around the teams' recent performance, squad composition, and any relevant tournament context. Key drivers of movement would include team news such as injuries, lineup changes, or tactical adjustments closer to the event date. The resolution hinges on the actual match outcome, which would definitively settle whether Mexico or South Africa prevails. Current market depth shows moderate trading activity across the three outcome contracts, with South Africa priced at 13 cents and a tie scenario at 20 cents, totaling near-certain market recognition that all outcomes remain possible.
- ›Mexico contract trades at 63¢ on Kalshi with $441 24-hour volume, establishing the current market consensus but with relatively modest liquidity for a binary sports outcome
- ›South Africa priced at 13¢ suggests approximately 4.8-to-1 implied odds against them, a substantial gap that would reverse if roster changes or recent results shift expectations
- ›Tie outcome at 20¢ indicates roughly 20% implied probability, meaning the market expects meaningful scoring differential or clear winner despite match structure
- ›Trading volume across three contracts ($441-$576 range) is moderate, suggesting the event may have limited media coverage or occur outside major tournament windows
- ›No visible date specification in available contract data means resolution timing remains undefined, potentially affecting how near-term vs. longer-term factors influence current pricing
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.