MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 91% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Jeremy Moss
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
Don Ufford
Spread
86pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$80
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 4, 2026
87 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner
MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner: Jeremy Moss
0x105b2c…943f
MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner: Don Ufford
0xdd4b16…3552
MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner: Andy Levin
0xec5589…b693
MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner: Dave Woodward
0x166182…b0e1
MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner: Aisha Farooqi
0xa608c5…3bfc
Analysis
The market is pricing an 81% probability for a specific outcome in Michigan's 11th Congressional District Democratic primary. This reflects trader expectations about which candidate will secure the Democratic nomination in this House race. The high probability suggests significant market confidence in the frontrunner based on current polling, fundraising data, and historical performance in similar contests. Factors driving this level include the candidate's polling lead, organizational strength, and perceived electability in the general election. The primary election itself will be the definitive catalyst resolving this uncertainty. Between now and the primary vote, shifts in polling, campaign developments, or unexpected endorsements could move the probability materially lower, while sustained polling leads or major fundraising announcements could reinforce the current forecast.
- ›Current polling margin between the frontrunner and nearest rival in MI-11 Democratic primary
- ›Relative fundraising totals and cash-on-hand as of the most recent FEC filing
- ›Endorsement patterns from established party figures and union organizations in the district
- ›Historical voter turnout and demographic composition in previous MI-11 Democratic primaries
- ›Timeline to the primary election date and any scheduled debates or candidate events
What moved the line
- May 7Jeremy Moss↑9pp83→92¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Don Ufford↓8pp15→7¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Aisha Farooqi↓5pp8→3¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Andy Levin↓5pp9→4¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Andy Levin↓4pp13→9¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.