MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 54% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Shri Thanedar
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
Donavan McKinney
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 4, 2026
87 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner
MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner: Shri Thanedar
0x399b69…20b9
MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner: Anthony Carbonaro
0xfb3b8e…956f
MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner: Shelby Campbell
0x7ab50d…f8cf
MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner: Donavan McKinney
0x2cfbd8…17f3
Analysis
This represents the probability that a specific candidate wins the Michigan's 13th congressional district Democratic primary. The 52% leading probability reflects meaningful uncertainty rather than a consensus outcome, with the runner-up candidate at 38% indicating a competitive race. Primary dynamics in this district are driven by candidate name recognition, endorsement patterns, and organizational capacity. The main resolution catalyst is the Michigan primary election date, where voter turnout and demographic participation will determine the outcome. Between now and voting day, factors like campaign spending, local media coverage, and any late-breaking developments could shift candidate momentum significantly. The gap between the leader and runner-up suggests either candidate remains viable depending on how these factors unfold.
- ›The 52% probability for the leader leaves 48% probability distributed among other candidates, indicating a competitive race rather than an overwhelming favorite
- ›Polymarket's three contracts show the market is segmented across multiple potential outcomes with active trading volume, reflecting genuine uncertainty about primary dynamics
- ›The runner-up candidate holds 38% implied probability, meaning there is substantial trader conviction that an alternative outcome remains plausible
- ›Turnout patterns and demographic participation in Michigan primary elections are historically variable and can significantly impact multi-candidate races
- ›The timing of the Michigan Democratic primary relative to other state contests could influence local candidate positioning and resource allocation
What moved the line
- May 7Donavan McKinney↓8pp38→30¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.