Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Leader sits at 81% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 18%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Peggy Flanagan
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
18¢
Angie Craig
Spread
63pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$626
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
94 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Analysis
The market currently prices the leading candidate in Minnesota's Democratic Senate primary at a 77% probability of winning, implying roughly 1-in-4 odds for the runner-up. This probability reflects expectations about candidate viability, endorsements, fundraising, and polling data available to market participants. The main driver of the current level is likely the frontrunner's visibility and establishment support relative to competitors. The probability could shift materially based on new polling, major endorsements, debate performance, or fundraising disclosures. The primary election itself will ultimately resolve this outcome. Until then, changes in media coverage, candidate drops, or unexpected endorsements remain the most likely catalysts for significant probability movement.
- ›Head-to-head polling matchups between the frontrunner and runner-up, if public surveys show tightening or widening margins
- ›Endorsements from high-profile Minnesota Democrats or labor unions, which can signal organizational backing and voter persuasion capacity
- ›Fundraising totals and cash-on-hand reported in FEC filings, indicating resources for advertising and field operations
- ›Candidate dropout decisions, which reallocate voter preference and consolidate support around remaining contenders
- ›Primary election date and any scheduled debates or campaign events that may shift voter awareness or candidate momentum
What moved the line
- May 6Peggy Flanagan↑3pp77→80¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (81% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
California Billionaire Wealth Tax Ballot Measure Surges +23¢ — Now 93¢ to Appear
The Polymarket contract for whether a one-time billionaire tax appears on the California 2026 ballot jumped an extraordinary +23¢ to 93¢ today, while the separate 'passes' contract jumped +10¢ to 48¢. This suggests the measure has cleared a major legal or signature-gathering threshold.
2026 Midterms: Democrats 85% to Flip House, Senate a Toss-Up
Prediction markets price Democrats as 85% favorites to flip the House while the Senate races at a coin-flip, with a full Democratic sweep now the single most likely outcome at 50%.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.