Based on 18 prediction markets, the current aggregate probability is 37%. Data sourced from Kalshi and Polymarket.

Aggregate probability is 37% across 18 contracts on Kalshi. Updated 6 h ago.

18 contractsKalshirefreshed 6 h agoCloses May 11, 2026 · 3d

Kyle Tucker: 1+ hits

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 18 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

37%

0%50%100%

Kalshi

37%

18 contracts

Polymarket

—

not bound

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$5K

18 contracts

Closes

May 11, 2026

3 days

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

Aggregate of 18 contracts · 1d

Bracket families

10 clusters across 18 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Shohei Ohtani” vs “Freddie Freeman”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Shohei Ohtani

3 contracts$2K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Shohei Ohtani: 3+ hits?: Shohei Ohtani: 3+

KXMLBHIT-26MAY082210ATLLAD-LADSOHTANI17-3

3¢—$892K→

Shohei Ohtani: 1+ hits?: Shohei Ohtani: 1+

KXMLBHIT-26MAY082210ATLLAD-LADSOHTANI17-1

59¢—$485K→

Shohei Ohtani: 2+ hits?: Shohei Ohtani: 2+

KXMLBHIT-26MAY082210ATLLAD-LADSOHTANI17-2

21¢—$455K→

Cluster 2

Freddie Freeman

2 contracts$958

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Freddie Freeman: 1+ hits?: Freddie Freeman: 1+

KXMLBHIT-26MAY082210ATLLAD-LADFFREEMAN5-1

62¢—$574K→

Freddie Freeman: 2+ hits?: Freddie Freeman: 2+

KXMLBHIT-26MAY082210ATLLAD-LADFFREEMAN5-2

21¢—$384K→

Cluster 3

Kyle Tucker

2 contracts$568

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Kyle Tucker: 1+ hits?: Kyle Tucker: 1+

KXMLBHIT-26MAY082210ATLLAD-LADKTUCKER23-1

57¢—$478K→

Kyle Tucker: 2+ hits?: Kyle Tucker: 2+

KXMLBHIT-26MAY082210ATLLAD-LADKTUCKER23-2

19¢—$90K→

Cluster 4

Jackson Merrill

2 contracts$528

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Jackson Merrill: 2+ hits?: Jackson Merrill: 2+

KXMLBHIT-26MAY082145STLSD-SDJMERRILL3-2

31¢—$307K→

Jackson Merrill: 1+ hits?: Jackson Merrill: 1+

KXMLBHIT-26MAY082145STLSD-SDJMERRILL3-1

69¢—$221K→

Cluster 5

Matt Olson

2 contracts$398

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Matt Olson: 1+ hits?: Matt Olson: 1+

KXMLBHIT-26MAY082210ATLLAD-ATLMOLSON28-1

60¢—$374K→

Matt Olson: 2+ hits?: Matt Olson: 2+

KXMLBHIT-26MAY082210ATLLAD-ATLMOLSON28-2

20¢—$24K→

Cluster 6

Fernando Tatis Jr

2 contracts$146

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 2+ hits?: Fernando Tatis Jr.: 2+

KXMLBHIT-26MAY082145STLSD-SDFTATIS23-2

24¢—$109K→

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1+ hits?: Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1+

KXMLBHIT-26MAY082145STLSD-SDFTATIS23-1

65¢—$37K→

Cluster 7

Ketel Marte

2 contracts$47

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Ketel Marte: 3+ hits?: Ketel Marte: 3+

KXMLBHIT-26MAY082140NYMAZ-AZKMARTE4-3

4¢—$27K→

Ketel Marte: 2+ hits?: Ketel Marte: 2+

KXMLBHIT-26MAY082140NYMAZ-AZKMARTE4-2

25¢—$20K→

Cluster 8

Juan Soto: 1+ hits

1 contract$44

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Juan Soto: 1+ hits?: Juan Soto: 1+

KXMLBHIT-26MAY082140NYMAZ-NYMJSOTO22-1

70¢—$44K→

Cluster 9

Juan Soto: 2+ hits

1 contract$27

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Juan Soto: 2+ hits?: Juan Soto: 2+

KXMLBHIT-26MAY082140NYMAZ-NYMJSOTO22-2

31¢—$27K→

Cluster 10

Corbin Carroll: 2+ hits

1 contract$20

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Corbin Carroll: 2+ hits?: Corbin Carroll: 2+

KXMLBHIT-26MAY082140NYMAZ-AZCCARROLL7-2

19¢—$20K→

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 6 h ago.

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