Nick Kurtz: 1+ home runs
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
2 contracts
Closes
May 11, 2026
3 days
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Rafael Devers: 1+ home runs” vs “Oneil Cruz: 1+ home runs”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Rafael Devers: 1+ home runs
Rafael Devers: 1+ home runs?: Rafael Devers: 1+
KXMLBHR-26MAY082215PITSF-SFRDEVERS16-1
Cluster 2
Oneil Cruz: 1+ home runs
Oneil Cruz: 1+ home runs?: Oneil Cruz: 1+
KXMLBHR-26MAY082215PITSF-PITOCRUZ15-1
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (14% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 h ago.