1 contractKalshirefreshed 5 h agoCloses May 11, 2026 · 3d

Nolan McLean: 11+ strikeouts

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 1 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

44%

0%50%100%

Kalshi

44%

1 contract

Polymarket

—

not bound

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$11K

1 contracts

Closes

May 11, 2026

3 days

Top contract →Read as answer

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Carmen Mlodzinski: 5+ strikeouts

1 contract$11K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Carmen Mlodzinski: 5+ strikeouts?: Carmen Mlodzinski: 5+

KXMLBKS-26MAY082215PITSF-PITCMLODZINSKI50-5

44¢—$11KK→

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 1 contract (44% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 5 h ago.

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