Will Arizona be the 2026 NL West Division Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 15, 2026
190 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Los Angeles D be the 2026 NL West Division Winner: Los Angeles D
Will Los Angeles D be the 2026 NL West Division Winner: Los Angeles D
KXMLBNLWEST-26-LAD
Cluster 2
Will San Diego be the 2026 NL West Division Winner: San Diego
Will San Diego be the 2026 NL West Division Winner: San Diego
KXMLBNLWEST-26-SD
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Arizona wins the National League West division title in the 2026 regular season. At 32%, the Diamondbacks are positioned as the second-favorite behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (83% implied probability), reflecting mid-season performance and roster strength differences. The main factors driving this level are Arizona's current win-loss record relative to divisional competitors and the team's trajectory heading into the second half of the season. Key upcoming catalysts include the trade deadline in late July, when teams may acquire or shed players, and the final month of regular season play (September-early October), which will ultimately determine divisional standings. Arizona's probability would move significantly based on winning streaks or slumps that alter their win total relative to other division contenders.
- ›Arizona's current wins-losses and games-back position relative to Los Angeles and other NL West teams as of early May 2026
- ›Pitcher health and availability, particularly for starting rotation depth given the long season ahead
- ›Performance variance in head-to-head matchups against divisional opponents, which directly impact the division race
- ›Trade deadline acquisitions or departures that alter roster composition and playoff positioning
- ›Remaining strength of schedule, especially games against weaker non-divisional teams that allow win accumulation
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (48% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.