MLS: 2026 Defender of the Year

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects the current consensus that the leading candidate has roughly a 24% chance of winning the 2026 MLS Defender of the Year award. The market shows meaningful spread across multiple candidates, with the top four defenders clustered between 16–24%, indicating genuine uncertainty about who will emerge as the season's best defensive performer. The award typically depends on defensive statistics (tackles, clearances, interceptions), team success, and voting patterns from coaches, players, and media. Resolution will occur after the 2026 MLS regular season concludes and voters submit their ballots, likely in November or December 2026. Current pricing suggests no single defender has secured clear favoritism, leaving room for performance during the season to reshape expectations.

• ›The top four candidates occupy 16–24% probability each, indicating a competitive field with no dominant favorite; any injury or poor season performance could shift probabilities materially.
• ›Voting composition and historical biases matter: the award typically favors defenders on playoff-contending teams, so mid-season team standings will likely influence final voting behavior.
• ›Contract liquidity and volume vary widely ($54–80 24h volume across top markets), suggesting some depth in market interest but limited consensus conviction in any single outcome.
• ›2026 regular season performance from May through October will determine which defenders accumulate the statistics and accolades that drive voting; current prices reflect pre-season or early-season expectations.
• ›Multi-outcome winner-take-all structure means only one defender will resolve to 100¢; the remaining 99¢ distributed across losers implies high expected variance as the season unfolds.

What moved the line

• May 62026 Defender of the Year: Michael Boxall↓27pp31→4¢ · Polymarket
• May 62026 Defender of the Year: Eddie Segura↑23pp19→42¢ · Polymarket
• May 22026 Defender of the Year: Zac McGraw↓22pp40→18¢ · Polymarket
• May 32026 Defender of the Year: Tristan Blackmon↓21pp30→9¢ · Polymarket
• May 62026 Defender of the Year: Birk Risa↑21pp21→42¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds