MN-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 68% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Matt Little
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
Matt Klein
Spread
41pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
94 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
MN-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
The 62% probability indicates that traders believe the leading candidate has a clear but not overwhelming advantage in Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary. This level reflects confidence in the frontrunner while acknowledging meaningful uncertainty from other viable contenders. Factors supporting this probability include the leader's fundraising, name recognition, or organizational capacity. Downward pressure could come from late-breaking opposition, voter sentiment shifts, or consolidation around an alternative candidate. The primary election results will provide definitive resolution, likely occurring in August 2026 as part of Minnesota's standard primary cycle. Traders are pricing in real but surmountable risks to the current frontrunner's path to victory, as evidenced by the runner-up holding 21% probability and the remaining candidate at 17%.
- ›The leading candidate's campaign infrastructure, fundraising totals, and endorsements relative to competitors as of late April 2026
- ›Early voting patterns and internal polling data released by campaigns in the weeks preceding the primary
- ›Voter turnout composition in MN-02, particularly which demographic segments participate at higher rates
- ›Last-minute candidate entries, withdrawals, or endorsement shifts that could consolidate support among other candidates
- ›August 2026 primary election results, which will definitively determine the Democratic nominee for this district
What moved the line
- May 3Matt Klein↑16pp10→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Matt Klein↓11pp26→15¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Kaela Berg↑3pp12→15¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.