SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 1 d agoCloses May 8, 2026 · 0d

Modern SC vs. El Ittihad SC El Iskandary

Leader sits at 38% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

38%

Draw (Modern SC vs. El Ittihad SC El Iskandary)

runner-up 32¢leader 38¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

32¢

El Ittihad SC El Iskandary

Spread

6pp

contested

24h volume

$125

thin orderbook

Closes

May 8, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayDraw (Modern SC vs. El Ittihad SC El Iskandary): 37% (4 days, 4 points)Draw (Modern SC vs. El Ittihad SC El Iskandary): 37% on 2026-05-08El Ittihad SC El Iskandary: 32% (4 days, 4 points)El Ittihad SC El Iskandary: 32% on 2026-05-08Modern SC: 32% (4 days, 3 points)Modern SC: 32% on 2026-05-07
Draw (Modern SC vs. El Ittihad SC El Iskandary)37¢El Ittihad SC El Iskandary32¢Modern SC32¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 4d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market reflects a 42% probability that Modern SC will defeat El Ittihad SC El Iskandary in an upcoming match. The probability slightly favors Modern SC over both a draw (32%) and an El Ittihad victory (33%), suggesting market participants view Modern SC as the marginal favorite. Current pricing reflects relatively balanced uncertainty across all three outcomes, with no single result commanding majority probability. The main drivers of this forecast are likely each team's recent form, head-to-head history, and squad composition. The outcome will be determined when the two teams compete, with the match result providing definitive resolution. Low recent trading volume suggests limited new information has shifted positions substantially in recent trading activity.

  • Modern SC's recent league performance and goal differential compared to El Ittihad SC El Iskandary in the current season
  • Head-to-head historical record between the two teams and performance trends in direct matchups
  • Team injury status and player availability for key positions immediately before the scheduled match
  • Home/away venue advantage and historical performance patterns at each team's ground
  • El Ittihad SC El Iskandary's current league position and momentum relative to Modern SC's standing

What moved the line

  • May 6Modern SC11pp4332¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6El Ittihad SC El Iskandary4pp3632¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.