Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
10%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$9K
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?: May 31
0xabef6d…8e9f
Analysis
This contract tracks the probability that Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Iran's supreme leader, makes a public appearance by May 31, 2026—approximately four weeks from now. The 7% probability reflects low near-term expectations for such an appearance, despite recent speculation about his potential elevation to leadership roles. Market participants appear to be pricing in his historically limited public visibility and the typical opacity surrounding Iran's succession dynamics. A significant movement would require either credible reporting of a public appearance or major political developments that shift succession expectations. The May 31 deadline creates a concrete resolution point, though the vagueness of what constitutes a "public appearance" introduces some interpretation risk.
- ›Mojtaba Khamenei has historically maintained an extremely low public profile compared to other potential Iranian successors, with most information about him coming through indirect sources rather than direct media appearances
- ›The probability assumes no major political crisis or succession emergency in Iran between now and May 31 that would force unprecedented public actions or statements
- ›Related markets show much higher probabilities for broader outcomes (66% for Iran leader change by end of 2026), suggesting traders view near-term public appearances as unlikely even amid succession uncertainty
- ›The contract definition and what qualifies as a "public appearance" may be ambiguous—whether formal statements, speeches, or any verifiable sighting would count affects market pricing
- ›Upcoming Iranian elections, parliamentary activity, or military commemorations in May could provide scheduled opportunities for public visibility, though none are guaranteed to involve Khamenei
What moved the line
- May 2May 31↓4pp13→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 6May 31↑4pp7→11¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (10% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.